Asei Ito, Jaehwan Lim and Hongyong Zhang
The China Quarterly. Published online 2025
Abstract: Previous accounts have suggested a potential divergence between Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang in their approaches to economic governance. This study examines the policy orientations of the two leaders concerning state–market relations, providing empirical evidence for the recent manifestation of what insiders have termed the “dispute between north and south houses” (nanbeiyuan zhi zheng) and its economic implications. By applying semi-supervised machine learning methods to textual data, this study demonstrates that Li favoured market-oriented policies, whereas Xi displayed a pronounced preference for state-centric strategies. The findings notably indicate an initial divergence in policy orientation, which was followed by a considerable convergence during Xi’s second term. Our analysis further reveals that Li’s market-oriented rhetoric was particularly prominent during “Mass innovation week,” indicating a campaign-style policy mobilization. Moreover, the analysis identifies that the discursive differences between the two leaders are associated with a decline in firm-level investment, suggesting that disparities in policy orientation may engender political uncertainty. This study contributes to the extant literature on the impact of leadership dynamics on economic policy, the implications of mixed signals from the central leadership and the phenomenon of campaign-style mobilization in China.
摘要: 此前的研究表明，习近平和李克强在经济治理路径上可能存在分歧。本研究考察了两位领导人在国家与市场关系方面的政策倾向，并为内部人士所称的“南北院之争”的最新表现及其经济影响提供了实证依据。通过对文本数据运用半监督机器学习方法，本研究发现，李克强倾向于市场导向的政策，而习近平则表现出对以国家为中心的战略的显著偏好。研究结果表明，两位领导人政策倾向的分歧在习近平的第二任期内出现了显著的趋同。本研究进一步揭示，李克强的市场导向话语在“全国大众创业万众创新活动周”期间尤为突出，表明了一种运动式政策动员的特征。研究还发现，两位领导人话语上的差异与企业层面的投资下降相关，表明政策倾向上的分歧可能会引发政治不确定性。本研究为经济政策有关的领导动态、领导层混合信号的影响以及中国运动式动员现象的相关文献作出了贡献。
About the authors: Asei Ito was a HYI Visiting Scholar from 2022-23. Jaehwan Lim was a HYI Visiting Scholar from 2018-19.