Siyuan Gao (Ph.D. Candidate, School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University) and Kaiping Zhang (Ph.D., Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences, Tsinghua University; HYI Visiting Scholar, 2024-25)
Abstract: This study investigates how government-led rumor rebuttals—in contrast to more familiar strategies of censorship or overt persuasion—shape online activism under authoritarian rule. Moving beyond traditional fact-driven or motivated reasoning frameworks, we introduce a theoretical lens focused on “wedging” and “chilling” effects. Instead of changing factual perceptions or core attitudes, state rebuttals operate by fragmenting dissident networks, undermining solidarity, and creating a dominant opinion climate. Using a natural experiment drawn from an incident of online activism in China, we combine a regression discontinuity design with computational text analysis to show that rumor rebuttals significantly reduce information-sharing behaviors, particularly among dissenting voices, while leaving beliefs and factual understandings largely intact. These findings highlight a subtle yet potent form of digital repression: by discouraging visible engagement and weakening collective resistance, the state can restrain online activism without resorting to direct coercion. Our research underscores the dual vulnerability of digital mobilization—while digital tools facilitate rapid mobilization, they remain susceptible to state-driven communicative interventions.
Keywords: Online activism, misinformation, government rumor rebuttal, computational methods, authoritarian politics
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